By Ron Bousso
Tribune Israel Correspondent
TEL AVIV – Election fever is in the air. Politicians jostle indefatigably to win over one more undecided voter. Pictures of the candidates and promises of a brighter, safer, wealthier, peaceful future are flagged on banners in every junction. Like each of the five election campaigns in the past 10 years, candidates believe that the March 28 vote is more crucial than any other.
But somehow, there seems to be little public interest in this campaign, which everyone agrees has been stretched out for too long. Most politicians admit that they would have been glad to hold the elections today or last month even. Many Israelis, for their part, are today increasingly wary of politicians and their election promises.
At the same time, this campaign has brought to centre stage a range of new, far-reaching issues, and the next government, in whatever constellation, will have to tackle several burning questions: the rise of Hamas in the Palestinian territories, the Iranian nuclear threat, the growing poverty, the near-collapse of the education system.
Even Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s promise to “fix Israel’s permanent borders by 2010,” if his Kadima party forms the next government and Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration that these elections are a referendum on Israel’s future borders, don’t appear to shake up the sleepy public.
Another explanation for the lacklustre campaign is the simple fact that all pollsters are in unison over the outcome of the elections.
The ruling Kadima, founded by Ariel Sharon, is heading towards a landslide victory, according to polls. With polls giving it nearly 40 seats in the 120-member Knesset, Kadima would be able to lead a strong coalition with one or two other parties.
Trailing behind with nearly 20 seats is the Labour Party, with its firebrand leader Amir Peretz, who at first took Israel by storm when setting the social issues at the forefront of the political debate. But the wind in the sails of Labour’s ‘New Agenda’ quickly dropped and the traditional security-peace process issues returned to dominate the public debate.
If there is one party that wished to place security as the pivotal question of the campaign it is the Likud, which has failed to get back on its feet since Sharon pulled the rug from under the party by tearing away the bulk of its voters. Unable to cross the 17-seat barrier in polls, Netanyahu has based his campaign on fear. Likud’s televised election ads show fire, armed militants and black-and-white images of suicide bombings. This, Likud claims, is what Olmert’s dangerous policies would lead to.
But it seems that unlike the 1996 campaign, which Netanyahu won against beleaguered Shimon Peres following a series of deadly suicide bombings, this time, the public is less afraid, maybe ready to take the risk, or simply uninterested.
What’s more, the recent successful raid on the Jericho prison, which led to the arrest of the killers of former minister Rehavam Ze’evi, was hailed by the Israeli press and showed Olmert as a strong, determined leader.
Netanyahu and the Likud, which portray Olmert as lacking experience in defence issues, were forced to bow before the acting premier for the important achievement.
But recent polls have revealed a new rising power that may be the central axis for any party that tries to form a stable coalition. The right-wing Yisrael Beitenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, is predicted to pick up a massive 10 seats in the Knesset, mostly thanks to the Russian vote.
This tough and ambitious politician, who immigrated to Israel from the Soviet Union 28 years ago and has served as the head of Netanyahu’s prime minister office and later as a minister, became famous for his hawkish opinions. Lieberman advocates an exchange of land and population with the Palestinians – Israel will retain most settlements in the West Bank, and in return will hand over to the Palestinians several Israeli-Arab towns.
Recently, party members and many of his supporters have said that Lieberman is, in fact, not so right-wing, and agrees on the idea of unilateral moves to guarantee Israel’s security. This is seen as a clear indication that Lieberman, who many wish to become prime minister one day, intends to sit in the next government.
As election day nears, the outlines of the next government appear to be clear, based on current polls. And if Kadima, Labour and Yisrael Beitenu succeed in forming a strong coalition, the next Knesset may well be one of the most important since 1967.
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