Jerusalem – Is Turkey’s souring relationship with Israel a worrisome trend? Eli Shaked, a former Israeli ambassador in Turkey, isn’t alarmed. In a Jerusalem press briefing held last week, Shaked said that Turkey’s anger at Israel and its embracing Syria and Iran is a tactical, not a strategic, move.

Nonetheless, on the very day that Shaked made his observations, a Turkish mob threw eggs at the present ambassador, Gabi Levy. A few days before, Turkey signed a US $10 million oil refinement deal with Iran, in defiance of the US call for sanctions.

Shaked explained that Prof. Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, supports neo-Ottomanism, a tactic that favours a common market with its Muslim neighbours.

Davutoglu aspires to transform Turkey into a superpower and enhance its military and economic strengths while avoiding conflict with its neighbours.

“It’s a nice idea and vision. How to do it is something else,” Shaked said. Turkey must walk a diplomatic tight rope as it attempts to resolve old conflicts with its neighbours. For example, Turkey recently restored diplomatic ties with Armenia, its eastern neighbour and century-old enemy. This in turn upset Turkey’s cordial relationship with Azerbaijan, which disputes territory occupied by its Armenian neighbour.

In the past, Turkey performed joint military exercises with the Jewish state. However, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of war crimes during its Cast Lead operations in Gaza. Yet Ankara never condemned Hamas for firing rockets into Israel’s south.

According to Shaked, Turkey’s tongue-lashing at Israel is merely a way of expressing its frustration at not being admitted to the European Union. Turkey’s latest oil deal with Iran is another way of flexing its muscles and provoking the United States, which calls for sanctions against Iran. However, Shaked assessed that Turkey will never break ties with Israel and western countries.

Whether the Turkish premier is an antisemite is less significant, Shaked said. What is more important is whether Erdogan will restore its economic and military ties with Israel.

“Other Turkish leaders were antisemitic but knew how to hide it,” Shaked said.

During the first five years of the Erdogan administration, Israel and Turkey participated three times a year in joint military maneuvers. Erdogan cancelled an air manoeuvre two months ago, ostensibly due to Israel’s human rights violations during Operation Cast Lead.

Despite Turkey’s dampened relations with Israel, Shaked feels that Europe’s castigating Turkey for its human rights violations, along with a strong Armenian lobby in Washington, will keep Turkey in line.